Burn Rate Scenarios

The single past-period observed burn — gross and net — that anchors the forecast-scenario matrix. The "we just lived through this" baseline against which conservative / most-likely / best-case forecasts are projected. Differs from `finance.gross_burn_rate` and `finance.net_burn_rate` in being explicitly a point-in-time historical anchor with both components paired in one object, rather than the standalone monthly KPI values. Common pitfall: anchoring forecasts off a single month with a known one-off (large bill, prepayment received) bakes a distortion into all scenarios — pick a representative period or document the adjustment.

Average monthly net cash outflow over the reporting period — total cash spent minus total cash collected, divided by the number of months in the period. The headline survival number for venture-backed startups: it pairs with `finance.total_cash_in_bank` to produce runway, and pairs with revenue growth to produce the Bessemer "burn multiple". Common pitfall: net burn is volatile — large quarterly bills (annual SaaS renewals, employer-tax true-ups), enterprise prepayments, and FX swings can mask the underlying trend. Smoothing over a trailing 3-month average is standard board practice. Equally important: do not silently include one-off cash events (acquisitions, settlements, large prepayments received) without flagging them — boards prefer a "core burn" and "headline burn" pair when the period is noisy.

Average monthly cash outflow before any inflows are netted off — essentially the company's monthly cost base in cash terms. Tracked alongside net burn because net burn alone can mask a structural problem when revenue is masking high cost. The board reads gross burn to understand the absolute cost commitment (mostly payroll, infra, COGS, sales spend) regardless of revenue mix. Common pitfall: founders often optimize the net burn narrative ("we cut burn 30%") via a one-time inflow without addressing the gross-burn cost base — the next quarter without that inflow re-exposes the underlying spend. Always present gross and net side-by-side.

Estimated number of months the company can operate at the current net burn before unrestricted cash reaches zero, holding everything else constant. The single most consequential survival input for venture-backed companies — it sets the urgency of every fundraising, hiring, and cost decision. Common pitfall: runway is often quoted off `finance.total_cash_in_bank` and a single-month spot-burn instead of operationally-available cash and a 3-month-trailing burn — the result is a runway that looks 2–4 months longer than it actually is when working capital tightens. Boards should ask which cash and which burn went into the calculation.

Executive narrative on what the latest forecast says and how it has changed since prior reporting — which scenarios were considered, which was picked as "most likely" and why, what changed since last quarter, and what would push the forecast into a different scenario. Pairs with `finance.burn_rate_scenarios` (the numeric scenarios) to provide the qualitative "why" beside the quantitative "what". Common pitfall: this becomes a restatement of the numbers rather than commentary — every paragraph should add interpretation the numbers do not by themselves convey (drivers, decisions taken, decisions deferred).

Narrative listing of the key inputs the forecast rests on — growth-rate assumptions, churn assumptions, hiring plan, FX rates, expected timing of large bookings, planned price changes, capitalized-vs-expensed R&D treatment, etc. Without this field, the board cannot tell whether a forecast change reflects a real-world update or a quietly changed assumption. Common pitfall: assumptions are written once at planning and never updated when the underlying reality shifts — track explicitly which assumption changed each quarter and why. Best practice (per "Venture Deals" by Feld & Mendelson, and standard board-pack guidance): every material variance vs. forecast should be traceable to either an executed plan or a changed assumption.