Quarterly Forecast
Definition
The team's expected closed-won dollars for the current quarter — usually a sales-leader judgment call informed by weighted forecast but adjusted for deal-by-deal commit confidence. Distinct from weighted_forecast (which is mechanical, stage × probability). Boards read both: a quarterly_forecast materially below weighted_forecast means the team has explicit negative judgment on specific big deals; above it means they're calling deals stronger than the stage probabilities suggest. Common pitfall: anchoring the call to plan rather than reality — boards quickly learn to discount "we will hit plan" forecasts and reward calibrated commit-vs-actual track records.
Why it matters
The number the board commits against — quarter-end attainment vs this number is the primary execution scorecard. Track forecast-accuracy (forecast vs actual) over time to calibrate trust in the call.
How it's calculated
Quarterly Forecast = Sales leadership's committed call on closed-won dollars for the current quarter. Convention: blends weighted forecast (mechanical) with deal-by-deal judgment overlays (commit / best-case adjustments). Typically reported as a single point estimate; some teams report commit / forecast / best-case ranges. How to interpret it
Forecast attainment within ±5% over 4+ quarters = well-calibrated forecast and a leader the board can rely on. Persistent over-shoot = sandbagging (rebase quota); persistent under-shoot = forecasting / qualification problem worth a methodology change. The drift between weighted forecast and quarterly forecast is itself a signal — large gaps demand explicit explanation.
Source
imboard Editorial
Stage relevance
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Related KPIs
Total pipeline value with each deal multiplied by its stage-based close probability — the canonical probabilistic forecast number. More forecasting-useful than raw pipeline value because it accounts for the conversion-likelihood mix across stages (early-stage deals weighted ~10–25%, mid-stage ~40–60%, late-stage ~70–90%). Common pitfall: using globally-flat probabilities (e.g. always 50%) instead of stage-specific calibrated ones — a reliable weighted forecast requires the stage probabilities to be back-tested against actual close rates from prior periods.
Sum of the dollar value of all active deals currently in the sales pipeline — unweighted (raw deal-value sum, not probability-weighted). Boards read this as the top-of-funnel sufficiency check: if pipeline coverage (pipeline value / forecast) drops below the historic conversion-rate-implied threshold, the forecast is at risk. Common pitfall: confusing pipeline value with weighted forecast — the unweighted number always exceeds the weighted, often by 3–5× depending on the stage mix. Always report both and the implied conversion ratio.
Total dollar value of all opportunities closed-won during the period — the period's realized bookings from the pipeline motion. Reconciles to (sales.new_business + sales.expansion) when split by deal type. Common pitfall: reporting TCV (total contract value) here when the rest of the dashboard uses ACV — pick one and apply it consistently across closed_won_value, weighted_forecast, and pipeline_value, or the dashboard math stops reconciling.
Percentage of closed opportunities that resulted in closed-won (vs closed-lost) during the period. The single best read on bottom-of-funnel execution and the most direct input to pipeline-coverage math (required coverage = 1 / win rate). Common pitfall: computing win rate without disqualifying "no decision" outcomes inflates losses and depresses the rate artificially; the SaaS norm is to either bucket no-decisions separately or track a two-rate view (raw win rate vs ICP-fit win rate excluding no-decisions). Stage-segment cuts (SMB vs Enterprise) usually differ 2×–4× and should be reported separately when volume permits.
Container handle for the addable per-quarter forecast rows — each row tracks quarter, totalPipelineValue, weightedPipelineValue, expectedCloses (committed forecast), and dealCount. Rendered via the AddableQuarterlyForecastTable widget. Provides the multi-quarter forward visibility view the board reviews to validate the next 2–4 quarters of revenue, not just the current quarter. Common pitfall: filling in only the current quarter and treating future quarters as "we'll figure it out" — multi-quarter forecasting forces honest top-of-funnel planning for the periods beyond the immediate one.
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