Weighted Pipeline Forecast
Definition
Total pipeline value with each deal multiplied by its stage-based close probability — the canonical probabilistic forecast number. More forecasting-useful than raw pipeline value because it accounts for the conversion-likelihood mix across stages (early-stage deals weighted ~10–25%, mid-stage ~40–60%, late-stage ~70–90%). Common pitfall: using globally-flat probabilities (e.g. always 50%) instead of stage-specific calibrated ones — a reliable weighted forecast requires the stage probabilities to be back-tested against actual close rates from prior periods.
Why it matters
The single most-cited number in the weekly forecast call — the team's probabilistic answer to "what will we close." Boards compare it to commit and quota to assess delivery risk.
How it's calculated
Weighted Forecast = Σ (deal_value × stage_close_probability) across all open opportunities. Stage probabilities should be the empirical historical close rate by stage for the comparable cohort (segment / motion / quarter-of-year mix), not arbitrary fractions. How to interpret it
Weighted forecast trending up while pipeline value is flat usually means deals are advancing through stages (good); trending flat while pipeline grows usually means new deals are entering early stages but not advancing (top-of-funnel-only growth — yellow flag). A weighted forecast meaningfully below quota mid-quarter is the canonical "you will miss without intervention" signal.
Source
imboard Editorial
Stage relevance
Typically owned by
Related KPIs
Sum of the dollar value of all active deals currently in the sales pipeline — unweighted (raw deal-value sum, not probability-weighted). Boards read this as the top-of-funnel sufficiency check: if pipeline coverage (pipeline value / forecast) drops below the historic conversion-rate-implied threshold, the forecast is at risk. Common pitfall: confusing pipeline value with weighted forecast — the unweighted number always exceeds the weighted, often by 3–5× depending on the stage mix. Always report both and the implied conversion ratio.
The team's expected closed-won dollars for the current quarter — usually a sales-leader judgment call informed by weighted forecast but adjusted for deal-by-deal commit confidence. Distinct from weighted_forecast (which is mechanical, stage × probability). Boards read both: a quarterly_forecast materially below weighted_forecast means the team has explicit negative judgment on specific big deals; above it means they're calling deals stronger than the stage probabilities suggest. Common pitfall: anchoring the call to plan rather than reality — boards quickly learn to discount "we will hit plan" forecasts and reward calibrated commit-vs-actual track records.
Container handle for the per-stage pipeline metrics grid — for each pipeline stage (qualification, discovery, evaluation, proposal, negotiation, closing) tracks dealCount, totalValue, closingProbability, winRateFromStage, and avgTimeToClose. The most diagnostic surface in the pipeline view: where deals are bunching, which stage is the bottleneck, where conversion math is breaking. Rendered via the StageMetricsGrid widget seeded from PipelineStageValues. Common pitfall: trusting unchanged stage probabilities even as the deal mix shifts — re-calibrate the per-stage close rates quarterly against actuals or the weighted forecast drifts unreliably.
Percentage of closed opportunities that resulted in closed-won (vs closed-lost) during the period. The single best read on bottom-of-funnel execution and the most direct input to pipeline-coverage math (required coverage = 1 / win rate). Common pitfall: computing win rate without disqualifying "no decision" outcomes inflates losses and depresses the rate artificially; the SaaS norm is to either bucket no-decisions separately or track a two-rate view (raw win rate vs ICP-fit win rate excluding no-decisions). Stage-segment cuts (SMB vs Enterprise) usually differ 2×–4× and should be reported separately when volume permits.
Total dollar value of all opportunities closed-won during the period — the period's realized bookings from the pipeline motion. Reconciles to (sales.new_business + sales.expansion) when split by deal type. Common pitfall: reporting TCV (total contract value) here when the rest of the dashboard uses ACV — pick one and apply it consistently across closed_won_value, weighted_forecast, and pipeline_value, or the dashboard math stops reconciling.
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