Pipeline Key Deals

Sum of the dollar value of all active deals currently in the sales pipeline — unweighted (raw deal-value sum, not probability-weighted). Boards read this as the top-of-funnel sufficiency check: if pipeline coverage (pipeline value / forecast) drops below the historic conversion-rate-implied threshold, the forecast is at risk. Common pitfall: confusing pipeline value with weighted forecast — the unweighted number always exceeds the weighted, often by 3–5× depending on the stage mix. Always report both and the implied conversion ratio.

Total pipeline value with each deal multiplied by its stage-based close probability — the canonical probabilistic forecast number. More forecasting-useful than raw pipeline value because it accounts for the conversion-likelihood mix across stages (early-stage deals weighted ~10–25%, mid-stage ~40–60%, late-stage ~70–90%). Common pitfall: using globally-flat probabilities (e.g. always 50%) instead of stage-specific calibrated ones — a reliable weighted forecast requires the stage probabilities to be back-tested against actual close rates from prior periods.

The team's expected closed-won dollars for the current quarter — usually a sales-leader judgment call informed by weighted forecast but adjusted for deal-by-deal commit confidence. Distinct from weighted_forecast (which is mechanical, stage × probability). Boards read both: a quarterly_forecast materially below weighted_forecast means the team has explicit negative judgment on specific big deals; above it means they're calling deals stronger than the stage probabilities suggest. Common pitfall: anchoring the call to plan rather than reality — boards quickly learn to discount "we will hit plan" forecasts and reward calibrated commit-vs-actual track records.

Mean dollar value across active pipeline opportunities (Pipeline Value / Pipeline Deal Count). Distinct from sales.avg_contract_value (ACV) which measures closed-won deals — average_deal_size is forward-looking pipeline-shape, ACV is realized output. Common pitfall: a few oversized deals materially skew the average — always inspect median_deal_size alongside; a large gap between average and median signals a few mega-deals that drive most of the projected number, which concentrates pipeline risk.

Median dollar value across active pipeline opportunities — the typical deal in the pipeline, robust against the few-big-deals skew that distorts the average. The honest read on the "core motion" deal-size; if the team is winning a few oversized deals but the median is shrinking, the underlying motion is degrading even though the topline numbers look fine. Common pitfall: omitting median in dashboards in favor of just the average lets concentration risk hide. A best-practice board pack always shows both.

Percentage of closed opportunities that resulted in closed-won (vs closed-lost) during the period. The single best read on bottom-of-funnel execution and the most direct input to pipeline-coverage math (required coverage = 1 / win rate). Common pitfall: computing win rate without disqualifying "no decision" outcomes inflates losses and depresses the rate artificially; the SaaS norm is to either bucket no-decisions separately or track a two-rate view (raw win rate vs ICP-fit win rate excluding no-decisions). Stage-segment cuts (SMB vs Enterprise) usually differ 2×–4× and should be reported separately when volume permits.